一年已過，美國股市亦風光結束，電訊業是去年大規模併購的主要戰場，最重要的一役，莫過於最後一個交易日，全球最大電訊商AT&T，斥資860億美金，收購本是同根生的Bell South，兩公司的股價，去年分別漲四成及七成。
這宗交易終告完成，AT&T主席Ed Whitacre肯定最開心。眾所周知，由於Antitrust，AT&T於1984一開七。1988 Whitacre成為Southwestern Bell總裁，其後平步青雲，1995成為集團主席。工程師出身的他，上任後走上重組AT&T之路，把昔日分割開去的Baby Bell，逐一收歸旗下。
Bell South的業務，流動與固網參半，旗下的Cingular，為全美最大的流動網絡商。Whitacre事後揚言，在眾多資產當中，Cingular最為重要，更指出未來的策略，無線將取代固網，並以廣告為主要收入來源，觀點富前瞻性，完全不像一位65歲的老人家。
AT&T買下BellSouth，多了Cingular這支新力軍，但其整體業務，不外乎長途電話、固網、流動和付費電視那幾套功夫。付費電視還說得過去，但流動網絡、固網寬頻等業務，於目前的TMT行業，還沒有廣告收入的商業模式。營運商亦不可能強迫用戶收看廣告，除非像Google，知道用戶對甚麼資訊有興趣，但Whitacre根本沒有甚麼具體的法子。
當全世界都談廣告，競逐者包括大批舊媒體、不斷湧現的新媒體、連電訊商也要躍躍欲試。美國的廣告市場，能養活那麼多人嗎？
January 3, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Of course big corps have some advantage over small corps, but they are often too expensive because everybody thinks so!
I think both small and big corps can be good investment. For example, Peter lynch loves small corps.
January 3, 2007 at 11:12 pm
好似多人買的股與其盈利能力不相干！
好似有入市人80巴仙是賠20巴仙是賺之說！
好似羊生羊太先聽股評家的光明指引！
January 3, 2007 at 11:32 pm
上Google search才知道駿盈街暗指壹傳媒
股票 個人是愛有實力的落後股
不過在新聞上我是同意筆者的看法的
January 4, 2007 at 12:48 am
Having read the Long Tail Theory, I am amazed that one important market has been missed Perhaps this market is too obvious that makes the author 眼大睇過濃.
The internet acts as a platform where the Long Tail theory play its role. And the author use digital music as a good example. Think twice the Long Tail theory can be applied to the STOCK MARKET … yes the market you and I interact everyday :
1. The most active stocks constitutes 80%+ of the transaction amount … however no matter how 冷門 a stock , there will be transaction (sometimes I wonder how queer the taste of the buyer is)
2. The transaction ‘costs’ (I dont mean the commission) for purchase of 1 lot of HSBC is the same as l lot of junk stock.
3. The author has named a book suddenly becomes hot because there is cross-reference recommendation. In the stock market the same applies … just look at the price of Sino Golf when Webb recommends
4. Virtually the stock listed can goes on forever provided it fit the listing requirement
5. No storage required for physical ‘stock’
“388” has long been my flag ship investment that i start to buy it at $20 whenever i have spare money. I regret I understand the Long Tail market too late that can boost me the confidence of keep buying it at over $60.
Actually of the 4 stocks you quoted (388, 2628, 1398, 3988) only 388 is worth a high PE.
Another concept that I always apply to 388 is that it is a 賭業概念股. Imagine your friend 金手指 always recommend readers “一注獨嬴”, the ever increasing day traders , the increased popularity of warrants etc. To me 圖表派 is no different with the ladies and gentlemen who sit at the bagammon or big/small table, seriously took down the “trend” and hope to predict the outcome. (I consider 價值投資法 the only investment principle that stands emprical test). 港交所is actually the biggest casino in Hong Kong. What’s more it’s the one and only! it dont need to face competition (So goldfinger please dont ask for more stock market :-P). If you buy “Macau casino concep” stock you need to evaluate competition from Wynn or Sands but you never worry if you hold 388.
Yes, monopoly has its advantage!
And again while monopoly also applies to some public utility stock, the profit is always restricted and heavy capital investment is usally required, say if the electricity consumption increased by double. But look at the stock market capital investment need not be increased even the transaction triple or quadrupled! 真是多D嚟蜜D手, 大大都殺得起.
I declare 388 the King of Stock !!
January 4, 2007 at 1:54 am
從華爾街到駿盈街
I am a loyal reader of Apple Daily since it inception but I cannot agree with your view in this aspect.
Of course I agree 100% that a newspaper should stand firm and has its own viewpoint, however this should be done through the editorial or columns but never reflect it in the news. The problem of Apple Daily on the treatment of news is that the reporters always makes conclusive statement (or sometimes assumptions). The readers look like idiots or fools who cannot make judgement of their own. Actually everyone has its own benchmark to decide what’s black and white or right and wrong.
The phenomenum of ‘trusted source’ of Stewart or Colbert is itself a danger. Their standpoint may be 99.9% ‘correct’ but ‘to err is human’. How come one become ‘trusted’ because he clearly take his side? In fact,in this information-flooded area, one should critically review ‘news’ or ‘information’ received before accepted it as ‘truth’.
On the contrary, many people nowadays take for granted on whatever listed in the newpaper as ‘truth’; I have seen too many examples youngsters believe hoax or urban legends received from e-mails.
I am particularly not pleased that Apple Daily published blogs from nowhere and disagree that this is the way forward.
January 4, 2007 at 9:36 am
十五大知名股評人去年尾的飯局中，八大可以長期持有十年的頭四名
January 4, 2007 at 1:19 pm
aant︰那就要看一個投資者有否turn over every rock的毅力和洞察力了。當然，我也明白世上有不少很好的SmallCap是best kept as SmallCap，不過，對大多數「求其」要一個數字的散戶，還是隨眾穩妥一點。而且不少散戶的心理質素一般，有「輸谷贏縮」者，更多是「短炒變長線」。既然如此，何不投資在LargeCap呢？
January 4, 2007 at 1:24 pm
tintinbright︰閣下的388賭業概念非常有啟發性，事實上388是我們力挺的一隻的壟斷概念股之一。
它的收入透明過之高，相信在港股也數一數二；不過，正正是這個原因，在我們專欄中，388好像沒有甚麼可以寫呢…
January 4, 2007 at 1:46 pm
再覆 tintinbright︰
請不要誤會，有立場不代表妄故事實。
我們也絕對反對失實誇張的報導。所有報導都要以事實為本，要有真憑實據，這是大原則，沒有傳媒夠膽背棄。
不過，平白地將事實鋪陳，那又怎會是新聞呢？讓我舉個例。
有記者想做一個關於南亞鶵妓的專題。當然，背後已經有個「揭露社會陰暗面」的立場，否則這個專題就會變成南亞旅遊新趨勢了。不要緊，這個記者可以有他的立場︿最緊要是這個立場要鮮明。他可以選擇報導控制鶵妓的地方官員，也可以報導世界各地千里遙遙來到亞洲嫖客（說這些是變態佬婆也可以），不過，說到底，這些取材背後都有一個立場，就是要「揭露社會陰暗面」，否則，這個報導就根本沒有價值。
更深入一點的，可以去追訪這些國家的貪污問題，又或者變態佬婆的童年故事，還有數不清的角度，不過，沒有一個立場，又怎可能構成一篇令讀者反思的報導呢？
社會新聞如是，財經新聞亦如是。說傳媒有立場，那是事實的陳述。市面上的確有些傳媒表面上很「中立」，不過究竟甚麼是「中立」呢？
Steward和Colbert是美國25歲以下年青人最取信的新聞來源，因為他們夠cynical，而他們也非常明確地將他們的立場呈現在觀眾眼前。（By the way，Steward和Colbert是Talk Show 評論，不是新聞呢！）
那些有立場，有hidden agenda，但偽裝成中立的報導才是我們最不齒的傳媒。香港有，美國也有，大陸更多。